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As we speculated in our weekly New Zealand Dollar forecast, the second-quarter edition of the NZIER Business Opinion Survey ticked higher to register at -25, meaning that a net 25% of the companies polled for the report believe the economy will deteriorate over the next six months. A record 65% of respondents were expecting worse conditions in the three months to March. Leading indicators were telegraphing a relative improvement, with the monthly NBNZ measure of business confidence rising steadily through the second quarter, swinging into positive territory in May for the first time since September 2008

New Zealand Dollar Selling Ahead If Stock Markets Turn Lower Fundamental Outlook for New Zealand Dollar: Bearish -?New Zealand Trade Deficit Narrows as Imports Fall Most in 16 Years -?Candlesticks Point to Bearish Reversal as NZDUSD Breaks Channel Support The New Zealand Dollar may see considerable selling pressure in the coming week as a downward reversal in global risk appetite weighs on high-yielding and commodity-linked currencies.

Canadian Dollar To Weaken Further As Labor Market Falters Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Bearish -?Canadian GDP Contracts in April, Factory Prices Tumble Lower in May -?USD/CAD Sentiment Mixed The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback following the drop in risk appetite, and the loonie may continue to face increased selling pressures over the following week as the economic calendar foreshadows a weakening outlook for the world’s eighth largest economy. As a result, fears of a protracted recession could lead the Bank of Canada to take additional steps this month in an effort to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation, and speculation for further easing could weigh on the exchange rate over the near-term.

Swiss Franc May Fall If Bulls Give Up Fight Against Intervention Fundamental Forecast for Swiss Franc: Bearish - Swiss UBS May Consumption Indicator fell to 0.772 from 0.912, which was the lowest in five years -?SVME-PMI Index rose for July to 41.8 from 39.8, as orders increased -?Consumer prices fell for a fourth month by 1.0%, but less than the -1.1% expected The Swiss Franc ended last week relatively unchanged after it fell after reaching an eight day high on prospective SNB intervention and broad based dollar strength. The Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Thomas Jordan said the central bank will continue to intervene on an ad-hoc basis to prevent the Swiss franc from rising, as part of its massive quantitative easing. We didn’t see any clear signs of intervention as we did the week prior when the USD/CHF rose nearly 400 pips on June 24th

British Pound May Remain Under Pressure Ahead of BoE Rate Decision Fundamental Outlook for British Pound: Bearish -?U.K. 1Q GDP Contracted By 2.4% as the final reading was revised lower from the preliminary -1.9% -?The June U.K. manufacturing PMI reading rose to 47.0 from 45.4, which was the highest since May 2008 -?UK PMI Services fell in June to 51.5 from 51.7, diming recovery hopes The British Pound was derailed mid-week by a larger than expected contraction in 1Q GDP of 2.4% which saw the GBP/USD fall over 400 pips from its high of 1.6746.