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A EURUSD trade is setting up for bears.? The rally from 1.3876 was in 3 waves (corrective) and may have actually completed a complex correction from 1.3925.? The decline from 1.4057 is impulsive, which suggests that the larger trend is down.? Expect a recovery during the Asian session in order to correct the 5 wave decline.? Initial resistance is 1.3962.? 1.4000 is the 61.8% of the decline from 1.4057.? In summary, expect a recovery back to 1.3960-1.4000 prior to resumption of the larger downtrend.

Forex options markets suggest that the US Dollar may continue to rally against the Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar and New Zealand dollar. Yet an overall downtrend in forex market volatility expectations warns that key currency pairs could remain stuck in medium-term trading ranges. It will be critical to watch for signs of breakout in major US Dollar exchange rates